光華講壇——社會名流與企業家論壇第6763期

主題：Chasing Stars: The Analyst Playbook for Winning Votes追逐明星：分析師贏得選票的制勝指南

主講人：馬薩諸塞大學洛厄爾分校曼寧商學院 張馳副教授

主持人：會計學院 金智教授

時間：6月17日15:00-17:00

地點：柳林校區誠正樓650會議室

主辦單位：會計學院 科研處

主講人簡介：

張馳于天普大學福克斯商學院獲得博士學位，現任馬薩諸塞大學洛厄爾分校曼寧商學院金融系助理教授。張教授的研究興趣包括高管薪酬、企業創新、證券分析師、賣空與工作場所安全。張教授的研究成果發表在Journal Accounting Research、Management Science、Contemporary Accounting Research、Journal of Business Ethics、Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis、Journal of Corporate Finance、Journal of Accounting and Public Policy、Journal of Financial Markets、Financial Management、Journal of Empirical Finance、The Financial Review等國際知名期刊。

內容提要：

The Star Analyst competition offers a coveted opportunity for career advancement and alleviating career concerns. In 2019, Institutional Investor magazine replaced AUM-based vote weighting by commission-based vote weighting. Leveraging this major rule change as an exogenous shock, analysts strategically shift to issue more optimistic forecasts for the holdings of high-commission funds in a manner that is consistent with an attempt to gain favor from voting managers. This strategic optimism is not a correction from conservatism, as their earnings forecast fail to align with actual earnings and instead lead to larger forecast errors. Cross-sectional results show that analysts from large brokerage house display lower levels of strategic optimism, while the optimism is disproportionately stronger toward large firms. Additional analysis reveals that analysts maintain similar forecast frequency but issue quicker optimistic forecasts for target firms. This lectures focus on the issue that analysts employ strategic optimism to curry favor with fund managers in an effort to win votes.

《明星分析師》評選為分析師職業晉升和緩解職業焦慮提供了寶貴契機。2019年，《機構投資者》雜志用基于傭金的投票權重取代了基于資產管理規模（AUM）的投票權重。利用這一重大規則變化作為外生沖擊，分析師會策略性地轉而對高傭金基金的持倉發布更樂觀的預測，這與試圖獲得投票經理的青睞是一致的。這種策略性的樂觀主義并不是對保守主義的修正，因為他們的盈利預測不僅沒有與實際盈利一致，反而導致了更大的預測誤差。橫截面結果表明，來自大型券商公司的分析師表現出較低的策略性樂觀程度，而對大型公司的策略性樂觀程度更高。進一步分析的研究結論還表明分析師保持著類似的預測頻率，但會對目標公司發布更快的樂觀預測。本次講座主要探討了分析師利用策略性樂觀主義來迎合基金經理，以此作為獲取投票支持的競逐策略問題。